About ChanceMetrics
ChanceMetrics builds free, independent tools and research for prediction market traders. Here is who we are, how the tools work, and how we make money.
Who We Are
ChanceMetrics is a project of Drummond Analytics LLC, based in Texas. We are independent — not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operated by any prediction market platform.
The site is built and maintained by a small team with backgrounds in corporate strategy, quantitative analysis, and active prediction market trading. We use these tools ourselves — which is why they exist.
Calculator Methodology
Every calculator on ChanceMetrics uses published fee formulas from each platform. We do not estimate or approximate fees — we implement the exact formula each exchange publishes, then show you the math.
Fee sources: Kalshi’s fee formula is published at kalshi.com/fee-schedule. Polymarket’s V2 fee structure (effective March 30, 2026) is published in their documentation. PredictIt’s flat 10%/5% structure is from their published terms. We update our implementations when platforms change their fee schedules and note the update date on each tool page.
EV and Kelly calculations: Expected value is computed as the probability-weighted average outcome net of fees. Kelly criterion sizing uses the standard Kelly formula adjusted for platform-specific fee structures. Both calculations depend entirely on the probability estimate you provide — ChanceMetrics does not generate probability forecasts.
No-vig and implied probability: Fair odds are derived using proportional scaling — each side’s implied probability is divided by the sum of all implied probabilities to remove the overround. This is the standard method used by quantitative sports bettors and prediction market analysts.
Editorial Policy
Our articles and reviews follow a simple standard: say what is true, including the parts that are unflattering to platforms we have referral relationships with. Every factual claim in our articles is sourced from public regulatory filings, court documents, or published platform terms — not press releases or marketing materials.
We publish weaknesses and honest criticisms alongside strengths. If a platform’s fees are higher than a competitor’s, we say so — even when we earn a referral commission from the more expensive platform. The referral relationship does not affect our editorial content, ratings, or tool calculations.
Affiliate Disclosure
ChanceMetrics participates in the Kalshi referral program. If you create a Kalshi account through a link on this site, we may earn a referral commission. This costs you nothing extra — Kalshi’s fees are the same whether you sign up through our link or directly.
We disclose this relationship on every page that contains a referral link. It does not influence which platforms we recommend, how we calculate fees, or what we say in our reviews. We have no equity, employment, or advisory relationship with any prediction market platform.
Contact
Questions, corrections, or feedback: jack@chancemetrics.com
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ChanceMetrics provides educational tools and calculators for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Prediction markets involve significant risk of loss.