Robinhood Prediction Markets: How They Work, Fees, and How They Compare

How Robinhood prediction markets work

Robinhood’s product is built on a regulated chain: the customer uses the Robinhood app, the account is carried through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC (a CFTC-registered futures commission merchant), and the underlying event contracts are offered through licensed partner exchanges — currently KalshiEX LLC and ForecastEX, LLC.

That distinction matters because many people searching for “robinhood prediction markets” assume Robinhood built a standalone exchange similar to Kalshi or Polymarket. It did not. Robinhood is better understood as a brokerage-style access point layered on top of regulated event-contract infrastructure.

The contracts themselves work like other binary event contracts: you buy a Yes or No side on a question tied to a future event, typically at a price between $0.01 and $0.99, and the contract settles at $1.00 if correct or $0.00 if incorrect. Prices in cents roughly approximate the market-implied probability. In some cases, the two sides add up to $1.01 because the executing exchange embeds a one-cent fee in the price.

Robinhood currently shows categories including politics, sports, economics, climate, crypto, and financial contracts. The platform also supports preset combos (parlay-style multi-leg contracts), custom combos, player-performance contracts for major sports, and fractional/sub-penny pricing on supported markets. Event contract trading is currently app-only — Robinhood’s desktop platform does not support it.

What you can trade on Robinhood vs. directly on Kalshi

Robinhood gives users access to a curated set of event contracts inside a mainstream brokerage interface. Kalshi, by contrast, is the exchange itself — it operates the event market, maintains the order book, and lists a wide range of markets across politics, economics, sports, culture, companies, climate, and financials.

The practical difference is less about the basic contract format and more about platform depth. Robinhood is designed to make event contracts easier to access for existing Robinhood users. Kalshi offers the dedicated prediction-market environment with direct exchange-level features like visible order book depth and its own fee structure.

One point worth noting: Robinhood does not publicly confirm whether its app exposes the full Kalshi market catalog or only a subset. It is safer to think of Robinhood’s lineup as a selection of event contracts rather than a mirror of every Kalshi market.

Fees: Robinhood vs. Kalshi

Robinhood Derivatives’ public fee schedule lists a $0.01 commission per contract, per side. For KalshiEX products routed through Robinhood, there is an additional $0.01 exchange fee per contract, per side. That means a Kalshi-powered contract traded through Robinhood costs $0.02 per contract per side before any market-specific variation.

Kalshi’s direct fee schedule uses a formula-based approach rather than a flat per-contract commission. The taker fee formula is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), which means fees are highest on contracts priced near 50¢ (maximum uncertainty) and lowest on contracts near 0¢ or 99¢. Kalshi’s maker fee uses a lower coefficient of 0.0175.

The editorial takeaway: Robinhood is not obviously cheaper than trading directly on Kalshi. In some cases — especially for contracts priced well away from 50¢ — Robinhood’s flat $0.02 total may be more expensive than Kalshi’s formula-based fee. For contracts near 50¢, the costs are closer. Use our Fees Compared calculator to see the exact difference for any contract price.

One nuance: ForecastEX builds its one-cent fee directly into the spread (Yes + No = $1.01) rather than charging it separately. Robinhood’s fee schedule notes that exchange fees may vary by product, so the all-in cost on ForecastEX-routed contracts may differ slightly from KalshiEX-routed ones.

Regulatory structure

The chain to understand is:

Robinhood app → Robinhood Derivatives, LLC → KalshiEX LLC or ForecastEX, LLC

Robinhood Derivatives is a CFTC-registered futures commission merchant and NFA member. Both KalshiEX and ForecastEX are registered with the CFTC as derivatives clearing organizations. ForecastEX also holds designated contract market status, which it received in June 2024.

The practical meaning: Robinhood’s prediction markets product operates through the U.S. regulated derivatives framework, not through a proprietary offshore model. That makes it structurally closer to a regulated brokerage entry point into event contracts.

Robinhood’s own exchange: the MIAXdx acquisition

In November 2025, Robinhood announced a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group to acquire a 90% stake in MIAXdx, a CFTC-licensed designated contract market and derivatives clearing organization. The acquisition closed in January 2026. The new exchange is expected to begin operations in 2026 and will serve Robinhood Derivatives and other futures commission merchants.

This is a significant development. Once the MIAXdx-based exchange is operational, Robinhood will be able to directly list and clear prediction contracts rather than routing all volume through Kalshi and ForecastEX. Prediction markets were described as Robinhood’s fastest-growing product line by revenue, with over 9 billion contracts traded by more than 1 million customers in the first year.

Robinhood vs. Kalshi vs. Polymarket

Robinhood’s advantage is convenience. For someone who already uses Robinhood, event contracts live inside a familiar app alongside stocks, options, and crypto. The learning curve is lower, and there is no separate account to fund.

Kalshi’s advantage is directness. It is the actual exchange, with its own market structure, order book, pricing, and fee schedule. That usually makes it the cleaner benchmark for users who want the dedicated regulated event-trading experience.

Polymarket is a different comparison. Robinhood and Kalshi both sit inside the CFTC-regulated derivatives chain. Polymarket received CFTC approval for intermediated U.S. trading in 2026, but its structure, fee model, and crypto-native interface make it a distinct product category. For a deeper comparison, see our Kalshi vs. Polymarket guide.

Which platform fits which user?

Robinhood looks best suited to users who want a simpler, app-first introduction to event contracts — especially if they already keep cash and trading activity inside Robinhood. The trade-off is being one layer removed from the underlying exchange, a potentially less complete market catalog, and a fee picture that includes both a Robinhood commission and a partner exchange fee.

Kalshi is the better fit for users who want the direct exchange experience — visible order book, the full market catalog, and a fee structure tied to the exchange itself rather than a brokerage intermediary.

Polymarket serves a different audience: crypto-native users, international traders, and people drawn to its distinct market style and fee model.

State restrictions

Robinhood event contracts are generally available across the U.S., but with some state-level exceptions. Maryland residents do not have access to event contracts. Starting December 2025, Nevada residents cannot trade new sports event contracts. Sports contracts are also not available in New Jersey. Economics, politics, and other non-sports categories remain available in those states.

Frequently Asked Questions

Common questions about Robinhood prediction markets, fees, and how they compare with Kalshi and Polymarket.